In this paper, we implement Granger causalty tests using panel data as methodology perfected by Hurlin (2004, 2005) and Hurlin and Venet(2004). We consider the bilateral trade patterns of the European Union with 17 countries over the period 1976-2000. We show that for the whole sample, there are...

In order to assess the growth implications of policy complementarities, this paper applies second-best results to reform indicators. During the transition from central planning to EU integration, which corresponds to a policy cycle, a complementarity index based on structural indicators compiled...

This paper studies the determinants of poverty dynamics in several rural areas from Madagascar. A particular attention is devoted to testing if rural poverty persistence in Madagascar could be explained by a vicious circle leading to a poverty trap. Annual poverty transitions retrieved from an...

This paper investigates empirically how three types of socio-political instability—elite, violent, and social—influence international aid allocation by donors. The results indicate that aid allocation depends on the type of instability (the effect of violent and elite instability is...

L’étude analyse les principaux déterminants du taux de change réel et modélise les effets de la politique de change du Cameroun sur ses équilibres externe et interne. Après une brève revue de la littérature sur les travaux sur les taux de change réel. Les techniques d’analyse de la...

This paper highlights the role of capital outflows in creating periods of turbulence by forcing emerging economies to raise massive funds abroad. First, we present stylised facts related to the capital outflows from the emerging economies. Then, we carry out a breakdown of the balance of...

Le terme de « gouvernance » trouve son origine dans l’ancien français et, d’après « Le Robert », désignait l’action de piloter un navire en manœuvrant le gouvernail. Acclimaté outre Atlantique, le concept resurgit dans les années quatre-vingt-dix pour désigner la gestion des...

This Bayesian modeling book is intended for practitioners and applied statisticians looking for a self-contained entry to computational Bayesian statistics. Focusing on standard statistical models and backed up by discussed real datasets available from the book website, it provides an...

In this paper we derive adaptive non-parametric rates of concentration of the posterior distributions for the density model on the class of Sobolev and Besov spaces. For this purpose, we build prior models based on wavelet or Fourier expansions of the logarithm of the density. The prior models...