Outliers can lead to model misspecifications, poor forecasts and invalid inferences. Their identification and correction is therefore an important objective of financial modeling. This paper introduces a simple method to detect outliers in a financial series. It uses an AR(1)–GARCH(1,1) model...

Complementary health insurance plays an increasing role in the French health care system. In this context, identifying individual preferences regarding complementary coverage is crucial to insurance companies as well as public authorities. This paper uses data provided by a major health...

We empirically investigate the impact of option listing on the underlying stock efficiency by looking at the volume-volatility relation of underlying stock. We use a time- consistent bivariate VAR (Vector Autoregressive Regression) model that includes time duration between trades. This model...

Developing term structure models can be tricky, as unknown factors and non-observable variables can affect futures prices. But principal components analysis is useful in tackling these problems. Here, Delphine Lautier uses PCA to pin down price movements, test their stability over time and to...

This article analyses long-term dynamic hedging strategies relying on term structure models of commodity prices and proposes a new way to calibrate the models which takes into account the errors associated to the hedge ratios. Different strategies, with maturities up to seven years, are tested...

Emerging economies and especially the BRICS countries have strong economic ties with the euro area. In addition, the financial crisis in the euro area may have effects on other markets or areas, especially those of the main emerging markets. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads are relevant...

Consistency, asymptotic normality and e ciency of the maximum likelihood estimator for stationary Gaussian time series, were shown to hold in the short memory case by Hannan (1973) and in the long memory case by Dahlhaus (1989). In this paper, we extend these results to the entire stationarity...

This paper considers GARCH(1,1) models in which the time-varying coefficients are functions of the realizations of an exogenous stochastic process. Time series generated by this model are in general nonstationary. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of non-explosive...

Sur la demande de l’Union française d’électricité (UFE), Jan Horst Keppler, Professeur d’économie à l’Université Paris - Dauphine, et Régis Bourbonnais, Maître de conférences à l’Université Paris - Dauphine et spécialiste en économétrie, ont entrepris une série de tests...