Similarities between the Great Depression and the Great Recession are documented with respect to the behavior of financial markets. A Great Depression regime is identified by using a Markov-switching VAR. The probability of this regime has remained close to zero for many decades, but spiked for...

The evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years are examined through the lense of a micro-founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the Federal Reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks. Agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs...

This paper models the evolution of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the UK economy across policy regimes. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and the term structure using a time-varying VAR model augmented with the factors from the yield curve. Our results...