The recent blossoming of panel econometrics in general and panel time-series methods in particular has enabled many more research questions to be investigated than before. However, this development has not assuaged serious concerns over the lack of diagnostic testing procedures in panel...

This paper introduces a class of cointegration tests based on estimated low-pass and high-pass regression coefficients from the same wavelet transform of the original time series data.  The procedure can be applied to test the null of cointegration in a n + k multivariate system with n...

This paper examines a test for the null of cointegration in a multivariate system based on the discrepancy between the OLS estimator of the full set of n cointegrating relationships in the n + k system and the OLS estimator of the corresponding relationships among first differences without...

Economies are so high dimensional and non-constant that many features of models cannot be derived by prior reasoning, intrinsically involving empirical discovery and requiring theory evaluation.  Despite important differences, discovery and evaluation in economics are similar to those of...

Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur.  Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors.  This analysis shows that a valid model can...

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models.  Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero).  In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at...

The literature has shown that network architecture depends crucially on whether links are formed unilaterally or bilaterally, that is, on whether the consent of both nodes is required for a link to be formed.  We propose a test of whether network data is best seen as an actual link or...

The conventional Sargan (1958)/Hansen (1982) test of overidentifying restrictions and the Tilting Parameter test of Imbens, Spady and Johnson (1998) are compared in the context of the AR(1) dynamic panel data model using Monte Carlo experiments. Interestingly, the size properties of the former...

This paper examines the impact of a major change in dividend taxation introduced in the UK in July 1997. The reform was structured in such a way that the immediate impact fell almost entirely on the largest investor class in the UK, namely pension funds. We analyse the behaviour of share prices...

The Folk Theorem for infinitely repeated games offers an embarrassment of riches; nowhere is equilibrium multiplicity more acute. This paper selects amongst these equilibria in the following sense. If players learn to play an infinitely repeated game using classical hypothesis testing, it is...