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Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis

Liesenfeld, Roman; Moura, Guilherme V.; Richard, … - 2009

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298829

Testing for Causality in Variance using Multivariate GARCH Models

Hafner, Christian M.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2004

Tests of causality in variance in multiple time series have been proposed recently, based on residuals of estimated univariate models. Although such tests are applied frequently little is known about their power properties. In this paper we show that a convenient alternative to residual based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296228

A robust bootstrap approach to the Hausman test in stationary panel data models

Herwartz, Helmut; Neumann, Michael H. - 2007

In panel data econometrics the Hausman test is of central importance to select an e?cient estimator of the models' slope parameters. When testing the null hypothesis of no correlation between unobserved heterogeneity and observable explanatory variables by means of the Hausman test model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296293

Exact inference in diagnosing value-at-risk estimates: A Monte Carlo device

Herwartz, Helmut - 2008

In this note a Monte Carlo approach is suggested to determine critical values for diagnostic tests of Value-at-Risk models that rely on binary random variables. Monte Carlo testing offers exact significance levels in finite samples. Conditional on exact critical values the dynamic quantile test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298764

When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?

Herwartz, Helmut; Weber, Henning - 2008

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in … at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years … 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298765

Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching

Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2006

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979

Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: The advantage of long memory models

Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136

Modeling the FIBOR/EURIBOR Swap Term Structure: An Empirical Approach

Blaskowitz, Oliver J.; Herwartz, Helmut; de Cadenas … - 2005

In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex?ante forecasting performance for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296240

The Decline in German Output Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis

Liesenfeld, Roman; Hogrefe, Jens; Aßmann, Christian - 2005

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296255

Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence

Herwartz, Helmut; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2006

In this paper we follow an empirical approach to examine the implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking interest rates and inflation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The considered sample is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296257