This paper analyzes the 2002 Argentine crisis using the Jeanne and Masson (2000) model with sunspots. Testing this model empirically through a Markov-switching model suggests that self-sulfilling prophecies is a reasonable explanation for the devaluation of the peso.

This paper analyses a model of non-linear exchange rate adjustment that extends the literature by allowing asymmetric responses to over- and under-valuations. Applying the model to Greece and Turkey, we find that adjustment is asymmetric and that exchange rates depend on the sign as well as the...

Stressing the inßuence of expected devaluation on currency crises, this paper shows that, in a fixed exchange-rate system with an escape clause, partial delegation of exchange-rate policy to an inßation-averse central banker reduces the probability of crisis.

We argue that an increase in aggregate demand can lead to a reduction in the interest rate.This apparently perverse optimal response of interest rates can occur when the Phillips curve is non-linear. In that case, an increase in aggregate demand tends to increase inflation and output but also to...

We propose a simply yet flexible framework for the analysis of optimal monetary policy rules that produces the type of non-linear responses derived in the literature as special cases. Perhaps more importantly, our framework suggests a richer set of nonlinear responses than have been considered...

We estimate a flexible model of the behaviour of UK monetary policymakers in the era of inflation targeting based on a new representation of policymaker’s preferences. This enables us to address a range of issues that are beyond the scope of the existing literature. We find a complex...

Obstfeld (1994) shows that a currency crisis can be explained by the occurrence of multiple equilibria (2 interior equilibria). For the same level of economic fundamentals, it may be optimal for the government either to devalue or to maintain the peg. The decision depends on the inßationary...

This paper attempts to explain the importance of the role of the speculators in determining the 1992 ERM crisis, and the effects that the policy of maintaining external parity had on internal growth. We focus on a different way through which expectations are formed about the macroeconomic...

In this paper we construct a model of a policy game in order to analyse the optimal reaction function of the Central Bank to a shock in the asset market. In doing so, we consider three different noncooperative games: Nash equilibrium, Stackelberg equilibrium with “FED” as leader and...

In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France).Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for...