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international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they … have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content … from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms …
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This paper addresses concerns that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with the exception of the GCC economies, has lagged behind in trade liberalization. This delay has adversely affected production efficiency and consumer welfare and could reduce the region’s ability to attract...
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The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on...
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This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national …
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Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...
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