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. Nevertheless, public debt has increased continuously and is now expected to exceed 60 percent of GDP, in large part driven by the … buffer risk methodology, we show that the prudent debt level should not exceed 48 percent of GDP and that in order to achieve … this in the medium term, a policy mix increasing revenues to 17.8 percent of GDP (from 15.5 percent during 2016-2019) and …
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We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A...
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