Over the past two years, the key trading economies in SE Asia experienced major economic crises, involving financial turbulence, large capital outflows and currency depreciations. These, in turn, resulted in severe financial constraints and business failures and required major domestic...

This paper provides a summary of the OECD’s new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more...

This paper was prepared in the OECD Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation-wide study entitled, “Towards a New Global Age”. It examines macro-structural economic developments in and between OECD and non-OECD economies, the economic linkages and a number of structural...

The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of major importance to the analysis of macro and structural economic developments, although in practice these concepts are not well defined and there is considerable uncertainty and...

This paper provides an analysis of the recent evolution of the U.S. current account external deficit in the context of the OECD Secretariat world model, INTERLINK. It seeks to assess to what extent developments in the U.S. current balance since 1980 might be viewed as being surprising, at least...

This paper describes a number of alternative medium-term scenarios for the OECD economies and related policy stimulations using the OECD world model INTERLINK. The starting point of the analysis is a reference scenario to 2000 featuring a general recovery of the OECD economies to steady state...

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper...

This paper reviews the influence of a variety of different monetary rules for the G3 economies on the comparative simulation properties of a recent version of the OECD INTERLINK model. The simulated shocks are typically of a "global" nature, with the main objective being to assess the relative...

This paper summarizes recent empirical studies contributing towards the OECD Secretariat INTERLINK world macroeconomic model. For a number of topics, it reviews work which is described in more detail in recent Economics and Statistics Department Working Papers. It also covers a number of areas...

If a macroeconometric model is to be useful for policy analyses which go beyond short-term forecasting requirements, particular attention must be paid to the form and consistency of its various components with respect to longer-term equilibria. In particular, long-run properties and ultimate...