Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three-equations model and contrasts its Bayesian estimation with the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match the model-generated second moments of inflation, output and the interest rate to their empirical counterparts....

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match finite set of the model-generated second moments of inflation, output and the interest rate to their empirical...

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models. However, using limited information methods, the empirical support for the New-Keynesian Phillips curve appear to be mixed. This paper argues, by means of Monte Carlo simulations with a simple...

In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the puzzle why the Lucas critique, belived to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real business cycle model to examine the properties of the super exogeneity test, which is used to detect...

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....

The study proposes a multivariate unobserved components model in order to examine relationships at business cycle frequencies among macroeconomic variables. The series are decomposed into non-stationary trends, stationary cycles, and an irregular component. The co-movements among the particular...

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access...

This paper attempts to uncover the empirical relationship between the price-setting/consumer behavior and the sources of persistence in inflation and output. First, a small-scale New-Keynesian model (NKM) is examined using the method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators with US data from...