Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically...

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...

Noting that many economic variables display occasional shifts in their second order moments, we investigate the performance of homogenous panel unit root tests in the presence of permanent volatility shifts. It is shown that in this case, panel unit root tests derived under time invariant...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that reversing current account balances imply costly adjustment processes leading to reduced economic growth. Using large panel data sets to analyze determinants and costs of reversals asks for controls of heterogeneity among countries. This paper contributes a...

What does the saving-investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the (SI) relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allow to...

We introduce a new, factor based bootstrap approach which is robust under heteroskedastic error terms for inference in functional coefficient models. Modeling the functional coefficient parametrically, the bootstrap approximation of an F statistic is shown to hold asymptotically. In simulation...

We propose a Conditional Autoregressive Wishart (CAW) model for the analysis of realized covariance matrices of asset returns. Our model assumes a generalized linear autoregressive moving average structure for the scale matrix of the Wishart distribution allowing to accommodate for complex...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of...