This paper summarizes key lessons learned from using models from microstructure finance to explain and forecast exchange rates. The first section is an executive summary, which outlines seven lessons that pertain to how different transaction-flow measures (e.g., interbank flows versus end-user...

While the practical policies toward the exchange rate of the Fed and the ECB are very similar, there is a major philosophical difference between the American view that governments have no business to worry about capital flows and exchange rates versus the European view that these things matter...

Surging growth and rising interdependence of East-Asian economies during the last two decades have heightened interest in monetary and financial integration. From 1985 to 2005, the share of intra-regional trade in total trade for the South-East and East Asian region (including Japan) grew from...

This paper examines different aspects of transparency in the foreign exchange policy. More precisely, it analyses how transparency evolved over the last decades in Japan and how market participants reacted to the changes in transparency. For this, we create a dataset capturing the main features...

Cet article est consacre aux principales lecons qui peuvent etre tirees de l'experience des annees quatre-vingt-dix et de la litterature theorique et empirique consacree au declenchement des crises de change. En reponse aux insuffisances des modeles de premiere et de deuxieme generation...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa. We model the volatility and jumps in exchange rate returns by using the GARCH autoregressive conditional jump intensity model of Chan and Maheu which models the effects of extreme...

Dans cet article, nous testons la presence de contagion durant la crise financiere asiatique. A cet effet, nous proposons une nouvelle procedure qui consiste a tester la non-linearite des mecanismes de propagation des chocs estimes a travers un modele d’interdependance de long terme. Nous...

Cet article etudie le coefficient de regression de l’indice de risque d’un pays sur le risque moyen des pays emergents (? risque-pays), en le supposant fixe puis variable, a l’aide d’un modele a composante inobservable. Nous nous interessons essentiellement aux pays d’Amérique latine....

Cet article elabore un modele d'evolution du taux de change reel d'equilibre. L'argument central est que son evolution est tout aussi importante que son niveau. La vitesse d'appreciation ou de depreciation du taux de change reel peut avoir autant d'incidences a moyen terme sur une economie que...

The paper first compares the monetary and exchange-rate policies conducted in the CEECs and by one of the neighbouring countries of the United States (Mexico). It is shown that Mexico has implemented reasonably expansionary policies, boosting production while avoiding financial imbalances and...