The “impossible trinity” refers to the impossibility of the simultaneous presence of a fixed exchange rate regime, uncovered interest parity and the Central Bank?s control over the money supply. I apply this to Krugman?s (1979) balance of payments crisis model, where he argued that there is...

Pendant les premieres annees de l'union monetaire, la faiblesse de l'euro a surpris la plupart des observateurs. Les explications se sont multipliees allant de fondamentaux tels que les differentiels de croissance anticipes aux facteurs psychologiques tels que les comportements gregaires, mais...

Relying on new cointegration framework with structural breaks in the deterministic trend, this article employs the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of Renminbi (RMB) and exchange rate misalignment in China from 1994Q1 to 2007Q4....

Cet article participe au debat sur la soutenabilite du deficit courant americain et son financement par les banques centrales asiatiques. Les estimations usuelles de taux de change d’equilibre (TCE) aboutissent a une surevaluation du dollar et a une sous-évaluation des monnaies asiatiques....

Lorsqu’on etudie des donnees macro-economiques, il est souvent pertinent d’introduire des ruptures dans l’analyse statistique. En particulier, la technique de la co-integration avec rupture structurelle peut s’averer interessante. Cet article propose une application du modele de Johansen...

The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 and 2011. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural breaks in the misalignment series. Through our tests we find three structural regimes. Our results...

The objective of this paper is to examine the exchange rate misalignments (ERM) of the main emerging countries in Asia and Latin America since the 1980s, so as to shed light on the 2000s by a long term analysis and compare with the industrialized countries’ case. Our results confirm that ERM...

Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances have only been partially reduced since the burst of the crisis in 2007. They reflect, to some extent, exchange rate misalignments, an issue which has been frequently studied in the literature....

Trade liberalization across the Americas holds the potential to substantially improve living standards and present a successful model of North-South regionalism. In this paper, we use a global CGE model to assess the effects of such an arrangement for both member and non-member economies. We...

Since the early nineties, there has been a veritable boom in the market for all sorts of trade agreements, from bilateral to plurilateral ones, and leading to deep or shallow integration. This boom might at least in part be explained by newcomers in the race. Certainly by the European Union,...