The “impossible trinity” refers to the impossibility of the simultaneous presence of a fixed exchange rate regime, uncovered interest parity and the Central Bank?s control over the money supply. I apply this to Krugman?s (1979) balance of payments crisis model, where he argued that there is...

Relying on new cointegration framework with structural breaks in the deterministic trend, this article employs the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of Renminbi (RMB) and exchange rate misalignment in China from 1994Q1 to 2007Q4....

This paper explores the consequences of introducing a monopolistic competition in a two-sector open economy model. The effects of fiscal and technological shocks are simulated. First, unlike the perfectly competitive framework, the present model is consistent with the saving-investment...

Based on a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between the exchange...

The aim of this paper is to assess the financial integration degree of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with the euro area in the prospect of their integration in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). To this end, we test the Feldstein-Horioka regression for a non-stationary...

The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 and 2011. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural breaks in the misalignment series. Through our tests we find three structural regimes. Our results...

La Turquie connaît depuis plus de vingt ans a la fois un déficit budgetaire et un deficit commercial. A l’aide des outils de la methodologie VAR (cointegration, tests de causalite au sens de Granger et de causalite instantanee), nous montrons que ce double deficit ne peut etre qualifie de...

De l'adhesion prochaine de huit PECO a l'Union europeenne s'ensuivra, a plus ou moins breve echeance, leur entree dans la zone euro. Les deficits courants de ces pays sont analyses dans cette perspective afin, en particulier, d'evaluer la necessite et la possibilite de quantifier le critere...

Cet article etudie les enjeux en matiere d'ajustement associes au choix d'une strategie de promotion des exportations. Il analyse l'impact sur la production et l'emploi d'une deterioration des termes de l'echange et d'une chute des entrees de capitaux etrangers. En l'absence de contrainte sur...

Cette etude vise a determiner les causes de la destabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernieres annees, a l’origine du flottement des monnaies. A l’aide d’un VAR structurel, nous analysons l’impact d’une politique monetaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d’une baisse de la confiance...