This paper examines the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. The episodes include the 1929 stock market crash, the 1973...

This paper introduces the concept of “debt intolerance”, which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that “safe” external debt-to-GNP thresholds for debt intolerant...

The frequency of financial crises over recent decades makes an in-depth study of the phenomenon imperative. This should involve particular attention to those points the different crises have in common, so as to draw lessons that can be used by financial authorities, regulators and the actual...