This paper identifies and analyses the fundamental structural shocks that have explained the short run fluctuations of the Venezuelan economy in its recent history. For this purpose, we estimate a dynamic factor model (GDFM) with a panel of 115 variables and evaluate the effects of a monetary...

It has been widely believed that Mexico’s rapid economic growth during the 1934-1956 period was only possible through an expansionary economic policy financed by inflationary means. Hence its contrast with the Stabilizing Development policy of the 1960’s, considered the golden age of rapid...

In this model, monetary policy follows an inflation targeting scheme, using the interbank interest rate as the instrument of policy, while the money supply remains endogenous. On the other hand, a limit for the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is set as the rule for fiscal policy, public...

New Economic Geography (NEG) focuses on the question of whether trade leads to a greater concentration of economic activity. Little empirical work has been done on assessing the regional distribution of the impact of trade. Therefore, this paper looks at the regional distribution in Mexico of...

Using data from the National Urban Employment Survey (ENEU) and the Annual Industrial Survey (EIA), this paper analyzes changes in the Mexican manufacturing labor market, and tries to relate them to the expenditure in research and development (R&D) and to trade liberalization. The analysis shows...

This paper surveys the recent literature on the methodologies that have been used to evaluate the distributive and poverty effects of trade liberalization in Latin America. Our survey classifies the large number of papers on the subject according to the welfare measure they use: inequality (on...

This study analyzes the ability of neuronal nets to predict the direction of the U.S. and Mexican economies, with the lagged indexes of the capital markets of each country as inputs and the compound leading economic indicator index (LEI, here treated as a coincident indicator) as output....

Until the appearance of the first wave of studies focusing on the hypothesis of the clarity of responsibility, the theory of economic voting implicitly assumed that the government is held responsible for the economic conditions of the country. Departing from previous studies based upon the...

The ability of some neural nets to predict the direction of the Mexican economy —represented by its LEI— when taking as inputs the simultaneous versions (smooth- ing and predictive) of a Gaussian Process fed with a Stock Index and a Bonds Index representing the Mexican market, is favorably...