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Less even growth in the world economy with significant downside risks

Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; … - 2018

The global economy is losing steam. After a weak start in the beginning of this year, world production accelerated … 2020 world output is expected to rise by 3.4 percent. Despite the gradual global economic slowdown, capacity utilization in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060516

Slower growth in the world economy

Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; … - 2018

World economic growth is moderating accompanied by a broad-based deterioration in economic sentiment. Following a … development. We expect the global economy to expand at a rate of 3.7 percent this year, followed by 3.4 next year. This is a … to expect world production to increase by 3.4 percent. The escalation of trade conflicts, the possibility of a “hard …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060521

World economy is gaining traction

Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; … - 2016

World economic growth has picked up from the sluggish pace registered at the start of the year. We expect global growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061456

Coping with disasters : two centuries of international official lending

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2020

Official (government-to-government) lending is much larger than commonly known, often surpassing total private cross-border capital flows, especially during disasters such as wars, financial crises and natural catastrophes. We assemble the first comprehensive long-run dataset of official...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233649

The Great Depression as a Watershed : International Capital Mobility over the Long Run

Obstfeld, Maurice - 1997

This paper surveys the evolution of international capital mobility since the late nineteenth century. We begin with an overview of empirical evidence on the fall and rise of integration in the global capital market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on the use of capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472861

International Capital Mobility in History : The Saving-Investment Relationship

Taylor, Alan M. - 1996

Economic historians have been concerned with the evolution of international capital markets over the long run, but empirical testing of market integration has been limited. This paper augments the literature by investigating long- and short-run criteria for capital mobility using time-series and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473091

International Capital Mobility in History : Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run

Taylor, Alan M. - 1996

This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century for a sample of twenty countries, a broader sample of pooled annual data than has been studied before. Econometric results for time-series and panel samples allows us to test the robustness of the PPP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473092

Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered

Taylor, Alan M. - 1994

A long literature since Feldstein and Horioka's seminal contribution documents the strong correlation of domestic saving and investment rates since the 1960s. According to conventional wisdom, the result provides evidence of international capital market imperfections. The macroeconomic theory of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474015

Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers

Ha, Jongrim - 2020

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479322

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Jordà, Òscar - 2018

This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453043