This paper estimates a simple model of the exchange rate between the East and West German Mark immediately preceding German monetary union. Although there is a theoretical literature on exchange rate dynamics when the introduction of a fixed exchange rate is anticipated, the absence of data has...

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data starting in 1967:1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain...

We explore whether the ECB’s interest rate setting behaviour changed during the financial crisis by estimating reaction functions over the period 1999–2010, allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another. The estimates show a swift change in the months following the...