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A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mizon, Grayham E.; Krolzig, … - In: Empirical Economics 27 (2002) 2, pp. 233-254

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In … the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical …-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005758339

A comprehensive German business cycle chronology

Schirwitz, Beate - In: Empirical Economics 37 (2009) 2, pp. 287-301

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008566208

Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles

Liu, Tung; Spector, Lee C. - In: Empirical Economics 30 (2005) 1, pp. 151-169

This paper uses U.S. monthly industrial production employment data between 1964 and 2000 to examine the dynamic labor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005382175

Common serial correlation and common business cycles: A cautious note

Cubadda, Gianluca - In: Empirical Economics 24 (1999) 3, pp. 529-535

This paper examines the frequency-domain implications of the serial correlation common feature in order to evaluate its merits as an indicator of common business cycles among economic variables. It is shown that the presence of the serial correlation common feature in the first differences of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005382237

Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany

Hamburg, Britta; Hoffmann, Mathias; Keller, Joachim - In: Empirical Economics 34 (2008) 3, pp. 451-476

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005382344

Fractional integration and business cycle features

Candelon, Bertrand; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - In: Empirical Economics 29 (2004) 2, pp. 343-359

We show in this article that fractionally integrated univariate models for GDP lead to a better replication of the main business cycle characteristics. We firstly show that the business cycle features are clearly affected by the degree of integration as well as by the other short run (AR, MA,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005382347

New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis

Hamilton, James D.; Raj, Baldev - In: Empirical Economics 27 (2002) 2, pp. 149-162

This paper serves as a partial introduction to and survey of the literature on Markov-switching models. We review the history of this class of models, describe their mathematical structure, and exposit the basic ideas behind estimation and inference. The paper also describes how the approach can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005166709

Ten-year forecasts of real stock price changes

Peláez, Rolando F. - In: Empirical Economics 28 (2003) 2, pp. 417-429

This paper provides the strongest evidence to-date on the predictability of real stock prices over long horizons. Ex ante forecasts account for over two-thirds of the variation of the growth rate of real stock prices over ten year spans from 1940 through 2001. The paper forecasts negative growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005166744

Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males

Kalwij, Adriaan - In: Empirical Economics 38 (2010) 2, pp. 429-456

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008594160

Markup cyclicality and input factor adjustments

Askildsen, Jan; Nilsen, Øivind - In: Empirical Economics 38 (2010) 2, pp. 409-428

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008594162

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