Disaggregate models are generally more policy sensitive than aggregate models. However, disaggregate models may not track aggregate totals, such as total U.S. fuel consumption, as well as aggregate models. We obtain forecasts of aggregate fuel consumption from the DRI aggregate model and from...

SAE models combine engineering estimates of end-use loads with conditional demand analysis of customer-level loads. The statistical procedure adjusts the engineering loads for observed customer-level loads. Using data from PG & E, SAE end-use loads are estimated for a sample of households. These...

Several methods for estimating net savings are described. Appropriate methods are distinguished from inappropriate ones on logical grounds. To illustrate the concepts, each method is applied to a simulated data set for which the true saving is known. The appropriate methods yield estimates that...

Federal law and state regulation promote the installation of energy-saving equipment by commercial and industrial firms. We estimate the reduction in energy consumption that a sample of firms obtained from such installations and compare the value of these savings, both privately and socially,...

We evaluate a utility-sponsored conservation program in which commercial and industrial customers received cash rebates for installing energy-saving devices. Our analysis indicates: 1.(1) Customers who asked to be audited (as opposed to a utility representative initiating the audit) had a...

Because utilities bill their residential and commercial customers by cycle on each working day of the month, the calculation of weather variables to associate with monthly sales data is complicated. We examined three different methods of calculating weather variables. 1.(1) For a utility that...

We develop and demonstrate models that combine engineering and statistical approaches to estimating customer-specific end-use load curves. Simulated end-use loads from engineering methods enter as explanatory variables in statistical models, and estimated parameters adjust the engineering loads...