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In this paper we study implied and realized volatility for the Nordic power forward market. We create an implied volatility index with a fixed time to maturity. This index is compared to a realized volatility time series calculated from high-frequency data. The results show that the implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208297
models. We also derive two general pricing formulas for futures options. Finally we present an easily applicable sufficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281306
models. We also derive two general pricing formulas for futures options. Finally we present an easily applicable sufficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190879
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423847
The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649327
After executing option orders, options market makers turn to the stock market to hedge away the underlying stock … independent of options. The analysis shows that the option-induced imbalance significantly predicts future stock returns in the … cross section controlling for the past stock and options returns, but the imbalance independent of options has only a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743556
options on the S&P 500 futures expire (pinning) and are pushed away from the cost-of-carry adjusted at-the-money strike price … right before the expiration of options on the S&P 500 index (anti-cross-pinning). These effects are driven by the interplay … (and early exercise) of in-the-money options by individual investors. The associated shift in notional futures value is at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010587978
We examine the information content of option and equity volumes when trade direction is unobserved. In a multimarket asymmetric information model, equity short-sale costs result in a negative relation between relative option volume and future firm value. In our empirical tests, firms in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010593832
This study analyzes the forecasting accuracy of the implied volatility of options on futures contracts for the delivery … of CO2 emission allowances (carbon options) traded on the European Climate Exchange. We demonstrate that option implied … volatility is highly informative about the variance of returns realized over the remaining life of the options. It is also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939429
We study returns on over-the-counter stocks and find that these returns are extremely negative on average. The distribution of OTC stock returns is highly positively skewed: while many of the stocks in our sample become worthless, a few do extremely well. We investigate whether this negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208265