In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries,...

Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite evidence of severe size distortions. I propose a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this bootstrap test greatly reduces the size distortions of...

Employing the MS-ARJI-GJR-GARCH-X model, in which the parameters for the jump process, the asymmetric GARCH effect and the impacts of oil price shocks are regime-dependent, this paper analyzes the impact of crude oil price shock on stock return dynamics. Empirical results reveal three...

In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our...

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of ChinaÕs trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a ÒbalancedÓ one in which ChinaÕs productivity grows...

This paper shows that tariffs and production subsidies can Pareto-improve welfare in a small open economy when a government is concerned with income redistribution under asymmetric information. In international trade theory, free trade is optimal if the government can use lump-sum taxes and...

This paper investigates two explanations for why industries might become more productive over time. The first explanation, termed the real productivity case,' is one in which firms become more productive and this leads to more productive industries. The second explanation, termed the...

This paper assesses the major developments in U.S. trade policies since the creation of the WTO in 1995. It is based in large measure on the fourth biannual (1996) WTO Trade Policy Review of the United States and updated through 1997. The discussion and assessments include in particular: the...