This paper considers how well the approach of combining forecasts extends to the context of electricity prices. With the increasing popularity of regime switching and time-varying parameter models for predicting power prices, the multi model and evolutionary considerations that usually support...

This paper develops and applies a novel electricity price model. We reproduce the merit order of a thermal-dominated electricity system by establishing a non-linear dependency of wholesale electricity prices on the prices of fuels (coal and natural gas) and of CO2 emission allowances. The...

Crude oil is a dynamically traded commodity that affects many economies. We propose a collection of marked self-exciting point processes with dependent arrival rates for extreme events in oil markets and related risk measures. The models treat the time among extreme events in oil markets as a...

The objective of this paper is to contribute towards the understanding of the linear and non-linear causal linkages between energy consumption and economic activity, making use of annual time series data of Greece for the period 1960–2008. Two are the salient features of our study: first, the...

This paper provides a comprehensive nonlinear analysis of asymmetric adjustment of the dynamic relationship between energy intensity and urbanization using the time series data of 1978–2010 in China at both the national and the macro regional levels. Two sets of unit root tests are applied...

Unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production, this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2010. In particular, newly developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with...

Examining stationarity is of particular importance and represents the first step in empirical time-series research. Non-stationarity invalidates many of the results obtained from standard techniques and, therefore, requires special treatment. Because oil prices play an important role in...

The aim of this paper is to study empirically the determination and the dynamic behavior of the SO2 permit prices. Previous research focused on ex-post market price analysis without taking weather conditions into account. Therefore, this study attempts to fill a gap in the literature by...

This paper explores the ability of European refineries to pass-through costs associated with the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). A sequence of vector error correction models (VECM) has been estimated within a multinational setting which covers 14 EU Member States. Using...

Forecasts of crude oil prices' volatility are important inputs to many decision making processes in application areas such as macroeconomic policy making, risk management, options pricing, and portfolio management. Despite the fact that a large number of forecasting models have been designed to...