Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and...

This paper focuses on the demand for crude oil, natural gas, and coal in the United States in the context of two globally flexible functional forms - the Fourier and the Asymptotically Ideal Model (AIM) - estimated subject to full regularity, using methods suggested over 20 years ago by Gallant...

Modern economies have been subjected to a number of shocks during the past several years such as the burst of the Internet bubble, terrorist attacks, corporate scandals, the war in Iraq, the uncertainty about energy prices, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis. In particular, during the last...

One of the basic features of efficient markets is the absence of correlations between price increments over any time scale leading to random walk-type behavior of prices. In this paper, we propose a new approach for measuring deviations from the efficient market state based on an analysis of...