This paper examines the information content of risk-neutral moments to explain crude oil futures returns. Implied volatility and higher moments are extracted from observed crude oil option prices using a model-free implied volatility framework and the Black-Scholes model. We find a tenuous and...

This study analyzes the forecasting accuracy of the implied volatility of options on futures contracts for the delivery of CO2 emission allowances (carbon options) traded on the European Climate Exchange. We demonstrate that option implied volatility is highly informative about the variance of...

Do events in the natural gas market cause repercussions in the crude oil market? This paper studies linkages between the two markets using high-frequency, intraday oil and gas futures prices. By analyzing the effect of weekly oil and gas inventory announcements on price volatility, we show a...

This paper studies the target pricing zone (TPZ) hypothesis for crude oil by examining price clustering in the dollar digit. It is hypothesized that price clustering occurs within an established TPZ if OPEC is able to defend the upper and lower bounds through output changes. The results show...

Ethanol crush spreads are used to model the value of a facility which produces ethanol from corn. A real option analysis is used to investigate the effects of model parameters on the related managerial decisions of (i) how to operate the facility through optimal switching from idled to...

Using recursive estimation and rolling windows over extended sample periods we examine the time-varying relationship between spot and short-term forward prices in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) wholesale electricity market. We examine theoretical models of forward risk premia in...

The ‘Masters Hypothesis’ is the claim that long-only index investment was a major driver of the 2007–2008 spike in commodity futures prices and energy futures prices in particular. Index position data compiled by the CFTC are carefully compared. In the energy markets, index position...

In this paper, multivariate GARCH models are used to model conditional correlations and to analyze the volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy companies and technology companies. Four different multivariate GARCH models (BEKK, diagonal, constant conditional...

We employ the Schwartz and Smith (2000) model to explore the dynamics of the UK gas markets. We discuss in detail the short-term and long-term market prices of risk borne by the market players and how deviations from expected cyclical storage affect the short-term market price of risk. Finally,...

An interconnector is an asset that gives the owner the option to transmit electricity between two locations. In financial terms, the value of an interconnector is the same as a strip of real options written on the spread between power prices in two markets. We model the spread based on a:...