In this analysis we more accurately capture the cointegrating relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices by endogenously incorporating shifts in the cointegrating vector into the estimation of the cointegrating equation. Specifically, we allow the cointegrating equation to switch...

This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors...

This paper applies nonparametric methods to identify jumps in daily futures prices and intraday jumps surrounding inventory announcements of crude oil, heating oil and natural gas contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The sample period of our intraday data covers January 1990 to...

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which...

This paper examines the information content of risk-neutral moments to explain crude oil futures returns. Implied volatility and higher moments are extracted from observed crude oil option prices using a model-free implied volatility framework and the Black-Scholes model. We find a tenuous and...

This study analyzes the forecasting accuracy of the implied volatility of options on futures contracts for the delivery of CO2 emission allowances (carbon options) traded on the European Climate Exchange. We demonstrate that option implied volatility is highly informative about the variance of...

Do events in the natural gas market cause repercussions in the crude oil market? This paper studies linkages between the two markets using high-frequency, intraday oil and gas futures prices. By analyzing the effect of weekly oil and gas inventory announcements on price volatility, we show a...

This paper studies the target pricing zone (TPZ) hypothesis for crude oil by examining price clustering in the dollar digit. It is hypothesized that price clustering occurs within an established TPZ if OPEC is able to defend the upper and lower bounds through output changes. The results show...

Ethanol crush spreads are used to model the value of a facility which produces ethanol from corn. A real option analysis is used to investigate the effects of model parameters on the related managerial decisions of (i) how to operate the facility through optimal switching from idled to...

Using recursive estimation and rolling windows over extended sample periods we examine the time-varying relationship between spot and short-term forward prices in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) wholesale electricity market. We examine theoretical models of forward risk premia in...