We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increment process for the low-frequency...

This paper shows that extreme energy price changes, located in the 10% tails of the distribution, cluster across energy futures markets during the boom–bust cycle of 2006 to 2012. Using multinominal logit regressions, we find that the coincidence of such tail events cannot be explained solely...

We examine the risk-neutral moments of crude oil and their relationship to stock returns in the Petroleum and Natural Gas (PNG) industry. We find substantial overlaps in the association between returns and S&P 500- and crude oil higher moments. Net of these overlaps, PNG stocks share a...

This work discusses potential pitfalls of applying linear regression models for explaining the relationship between spot and futures prices in electricity markets, in particular, the bias coming from the simultaneity problem, the effect of correlated measurement errors and the impact of...

In this analysis we more accurately capture the cointegrating relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices by endogenously incorporating shifts in the cointegrating vector into the estimation of the cointegrating equation. Specifically, we allow the cointegrating equation to switch...

This paper examines the behavior of crude oil futures price volatility and investigates how the EIA weekly crude oil inventory reports announcements, especially information shocks, impact crude oil price movement and volatility. This study focuses on inventory information shocks using a new...

This study brings fresh data to the highly-charged debate about the price impact of long-only index investment in energy futures markets. We use high frequency daily position data for NYMEX crude oil, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, and natural gas that are available from a representative large...

This paper applies nonparametric methods to identify jumps in daily futures prices and intraday jumps surrounding inventory announcements of crude oil, heating oil and natural gas contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The sample period of our intraday data covers January 1990 to...

We study how the exposure of fundamental and financial traders affects the futures curve of WTI oil and the market integration between WTI and Brent as measured by their price spread. To obtain a parsimonious representation of the futures curve, we decompose it into a level-, a slope- and a...

In this paper we study implied and realized volatility for the Nordic power forward market. We create an implied volatility index with a fixed time to maturity. This index is compared to a realized volatility time series calculated from high-frequency data. The results show that the implied...