Even after Fukushima, the nuclear debate is strong in many countries, with the discussion of its economics being a significant part of it. However, most of the estimates are based on a levelized-cost methodology, which presents several shortcomings, particularly when applied to liberalized...

Using recursive estimation and rolling windows over extended sample periods we examine the time-varying relationship between spot and short-term forward prices in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) wholesale electricity market. We examine theoretical models of forward risk premia in...

In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our...

An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations,...

We use high frequency real time spot prices and day-ahead forward prices from the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland wholesale electricity market to calculate, describe, and forecast spot price volatility. We introduce the concept of forward realized volatility calculated from day-ahead...

Heating and cooling degree days are in common use in conditional demand models, billing analysis, and large-scale energy forecasts. The implications of either choosing an ex-ante base temperature, or scanning over the base temperatures, as suggested in Fels (1986) and recommended by some...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of four widely traded commodities (crude oil, natural gas, gold, and silver). A broad set of the most popular linear and nonlinear GARCH-type models is used to...

We reconsider the conclusions about the importance of oil demand shocks and the unimportance of supply shocks reported by Kilian (2009). We investigate whether the proxy for worldwide real economic activity, dry bulk maritime freight costs, represents anything more than transportation costs by...

We use the ReMIND-R model to analyze the role of Asia in the context of a global effort to mitigate climate change. We introduce a novel method of secondary energy based mitigation shares, which allows us to quantify the economic mitigation potential of technologies in different regions and...

This article examines the volatility forecasting abilities of three approaches: GARCH-type model that uses carbon futures prices, an implied volatility from carbon options prices, and the k-nearest neighbor model. Based on the results, we document that GARCH-type models perform better than an...