Showing 1 - 10 of 19
This paper deals with the analysis of two observed features in historical oil price data; in particular, persistence and cyclicity. Using monthly data from September 1859 to October 2013, we observe that the series presents two peaks in the spectrum, one occurring at the long run or zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939454
popular linear and nonlinear GARCH-type models is used to investigate this relevancy. Our in-sample and out-of-sample results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729330
using the following ARFIMA–GARCH-class models: ARIMA–GARCH, ARFIMA–GARCH, ARFIMA–IGARCH, and ARFIMA–FIGARCH. Although the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010616864
forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices using a variety of GARCH-type models. Our results can be … summarized as follows. First, we provide evidence of parameter instability in five out of nine GARCH-based conditional volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010582222
the high-frequency EUA price dynamics are very well captured by a fractionally integrated asymmetric power GARCH process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011039526
production behavior in response to its “cut”, “maintain”, and “increase” decisions. Then by applying the ARMA–GARCH class models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011039532
This article examines the volatility forecasting abilities of three approaches: GARCH-type model that uses carbon … document that GARCH-type models perform better than an implied volatility and the k-nearest neighbor model. This result …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010868786
moving average (ARMA) models with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes, namely ARMA–GARCH … models, along with their modified forms, ARMA–GARCH-in-mean (ARMA–GARCH-M), to model and forecast hourly ahead electricity … the ARMA–GARCH based time series forecasting of electricity prices. Multiple statistical measures are employed to evaluate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010635963
Forecasts of crude oil prices' volatility are important inputs to many decision making processes in application areas such as macroeconomic policy making, risk management, options pricing, and portfolio management. Despite the fact that a large number of forecasting models have been designed to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010571716
, this paper estimates and evaluates the forecasting performance of four ARMAX–GARCH models for five MISO pricing hubs … by a simple GARCH model and thus are less complex. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010582224