Based on time series of crude oil prices (daily spot), this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters [tau] (speculators' time scales of investment) and [epsilon] (speculators' expectations of return) by using Zipf analysis technique, specifically, by mapping [tau]-returns...

The import risks confronting oil consumers are influenced by transport conditions, oil prices, geopolitics, etc. This paper constructs an evaluation framework for oil import security from a perspective of supply chain process, and builds a two-phase DEA-like model to evaluate oil import...

This paper applies real options theory to overseas oil investment by adding an investment-environment factor to oil-resource valuation. A real options model is developed to illustrate how an investor country (or oil company) can evaluate and compare the critical value of oil-resource investment...

This paper applies pattern matching technique to multi-step prediction of crude oil prices and proposes a new approach: generalized pattern matching based on genetic algorithm (GPMGA), which can be used to forecast future crude oil price based on historical observations. This approach can detect...

China's rapid economic development caused a sharp increase in crude oil demand. In 2011, China imported 254million tons of crude oil in total, with its dependence on imported oil reaching 56.5%. This paper carries out a quantitative study on the risk of China's crude oil imports by establishing...

This paper characterizes weekly international oil price fundamentals since 2000 by analyzing the transformation of the market mechanism based on structural change perspective. Using endogenously-determined break tests that allow for changes in both level and trend, we divide the price...

In the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2005–2010), the Chinese Government initiated a series of energy-saving and emission reduction policies in many key fields in response to environmental pollution and climate change. This paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of energy conservation and...

Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk,...

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an...