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This paper develops an explanation for historical differences in the ways in which territorial disputes between sovereign states have been resolved. The main innovation in the analysis is to allow for three possible equilibria: ú an unfortified border; ú a fortified but peaceful border; and ú...
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We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate …
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This paper reviews the economics approach to conflict and national borders. The paper provides a summary of ideas and concepts from the economics literature on the size of nations; illustrates them within an analytical framework where populations engage in conflict over borders and resources,...
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to go to war with each other, even after controlling for a wide set of measures of geographic distance and other factors …
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