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these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior … examine a broad cross-section of security price data to evaluate the causes of the bubbles. Using newly collected stock prices … in 1720. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that financial bubbles require a plausible story to justify …
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We test for the existence of housing bubbles associated with a failure of the transversality condition that requires …
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We study three centuries of U.K. fiscal history. Before WW-I, when the U.K. dominated global bond markets, the U.K.'s government debt was not always fully backed by its future surpluses, even after accounting for the seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. As predicted by theories of safe...
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We study cointegrating relationships among fiscal variables and output and use them to introduce a new measure of the government's fiscal position. In the US since World War II, we find that the primary surplus-GDP ratio and the government debt-GDP ratio are nonstationary, which invalidates...
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We investigate the Expectations Hypotheses of the term structure of interest rates and of the foreign exchange market using vector autoregressive methods for the U.S. dollar, Deutsche mark, and British pound interest rates and exchange rates. In addition to standard Wald tests, we formulate...
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