A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and...

The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to...