Ensuring high quality of public finances (QPF) with a view to supporting long-term economic growth has gained new urgency as the room for fiscal manoeuvre has shrunk in light of the current crisis. To more systematically analyse QPF and compare developments across countries and over time, a...

This paper gives a model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impact of European Union Structural and Cohesion Funds payments on the economies of the new Member States. The model used is a four-region DSGE model with human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change. The...

This paper analyses the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy in euro-area countries over the 1980-2005 period, focusing on the distinct role of government revenue and expenditure. The estimation of separate fiscal policy reaction functions in good and bad times reveals that, controlling for other...

Improving the quality of public finances (QPF) has become a new focus for European policy makers. This focus is largely a response to preparing the European economies for the dual challenge of ageing populations and increased exposure to global competition. At the EU level, the Stability and...

This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro...

We search through all possible consumer confidence indicators in order to find the single indicator that has the highest correlation with private consumption growth. Moreover, we contrast this indicator to the Consumer Confidence Indicator used by the European Commission, and some alternative...

Despite the fact that the correlation between policy rates in the U.S. and in the euro area has been low—at least over the past three decades—long term interest rates in the two regions have been highly correlated. More recently (since the early 1990s) their levels have also...

The changes that are taking place in the structure of the population of many Western countries are likely to require considerable adjustments in their social security programs. A partial shift from pay-as-you-go (PAYG) to funding is one of the solutions frequently considered. This paper, without...

The European Union uses large-scale fiscal transfers to national and regional levels to foster economic and social cohesion. This paper gives an ex-ante model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impact of these fiscal transfers between member states as planned under the Cohesion...

Delays in payments in Business to Business (B2B) and Government to Business (G2B) transactions generally have an adverse effect on the cash-flow of firm and can cause firms, particularly small ones, to seek extensions of their overdraft facilities and increase their borrowing. Late payment of...