Any jackpot building game is designed to have a negative expected return for the gambler, but it can be profitable under certain circumstances. Previous studies have shown that the purchase of a single ticket of US-American state lotteries is sometimes a gamble with a positive expected value....

We present a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It extends standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are atemporal single stage theories. Instead it employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and...

Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human...