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Central banks' predictability : an assessment by financial market participants

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2016 - This version: 6 April 2016

transparency-enhancing measures will improve central bank predictability. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447633

Does FOMC communication help predicting federal funds target rate changes?

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

We explain changes in the federal funds target rate using macroeconomic variables and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003852257

Bank of Canada communication and the predictability of Canadian monetary policy

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

We explain changes in the Canadian target rate using macroeconomic variables and Bank of Canada (BOC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that BOC communication is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889007

Managing financial market expectations : the role of central bank transparency and central bank communication

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2010

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency and informal central bank communication on the money … January 1999 to July 2007. We find, first, that both transparency and communication facilitate understanding upcoming interest … rate decisions. Second, transparency, as measured by various subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695544

Communication matters : US monetary policy and commodity price volatility

Hayo, Bernd; Kutan, Ali Mustafa; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2011 - This version: March 4, 2011

Using a GARCH model, we analyze the influence of U.S. monetary policy action and communication on the price volatility of commodities for the period 1998-2009. We find, first, that U.S. monetary policy events have an economically significant impact on price volatility. Second, expected target...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008859667

Do Federal Reserve Bank presidents pursue regional or national interests? : new evidence based on speeches

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2011 - This version: 11 February 2011

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials over the period January 1998 to September 2009. Econometrically, we use a probit model with regional and national macroeconomic variables to explain the subjectively coded content of these speeches. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008840992

Party affiliation rather than former occupation : the background of central bank governors and its effect on monetary policy

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Neumeier, Florian - 2013 - This version: 30 July 2013

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between certain characteristics of incumbent central bank governors and their interest-rate-setting behavior. We focus on (i) occupational backgrounds, (ii) party affiliation, and (iii) experience in office and estimate augmented Taylor rules for 20...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009775039

Federal reserve communications and newswire coverage

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013 - This version: 01 August 2013

In this paper, we explore the determinants of media coverage of Federal Reserve (Fed) communications. Our sample covers all 344 forward-looking communications made in the period May 1999-May 2004. We find, first, that there is a higher likelihood of media coverage for monetary policy reports and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009751154

Predicting Bank of England's asset purchase decisions with MPC voting records

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013 - This version: 27 March 2013

We use MPC voting records to predict changes in the volume of asset purchases. We find, first, that minority voting favoring an increase in the volume of asset purchases raises the probability of an actual increase at the next meeting. Second, minority voting supporting a higher Bank Rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723164

Are public preferences reflected in monetary policy reaction functions?

Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2013 - This version: 27 March 2013

In this paper, we test whether public preferences for price stability (obtained from the Eurobarometer survey) are actually reflected in the interest rates set by eight central banks. We estimate augmented Taylor (1993) rules for the period 1976-1993 using the dynamic GMM estimator. We find,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723166