In this paper, we provide evidence for a risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area. Our dataset covers the period 2003Q1-2016Q2 and includes, in addition to the standard variables for real GDP growth, inflation, and the main refinancing rate, indicators of bank lending...

In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule, which integrates two variables measuring the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of...

The personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis. Some central bankers even gained superstar status. In this paper, we evaluate the pivotal role of superstar central bankers by assessing the difference an outstanding governor makes to economic...

Empirical papers analysing the transmission of (unconventional) monetary policy typically rely on a vector autoregressive framework. In this paper, I complement these studies and employ a matching approach to examine the impact of the Bank of England's asset purchase program on macroeconomic...

In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999..2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the state weights are determined by an...

Using three waves of a customised survey among Dutch households, this paper studies the variation in people's views on inflation. Based on a range of panel regressions, we find that accurate perceptions of recent price changes are an important determinant of the accuracy of next-year inflation...

In this paper, we provide evidence for a risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area that works through an increase in shadow banks' total asset growth and their risk assets ratio. Our dataset covers the period 2003Q1 - 2017Q3 and includes, in addition to the standard...

This paper retraces how financial stability considerations interacted with U.S. monetary policy before and during the Great Recession. Using text-mining techniques, we construct indicators for financial stability sentiment expressed during testimonies of four Federal Reserve Chairs at...

We examine the degree and sources of disagreement between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) staff about the appropriate policy rate for the period 1987-2011. For that purpose, we compute a counterfactual interest rate for the Fed's staff , based on its...