Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of "global value chains" (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level...

We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural BVAR with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the...

We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area...