Showing 1 - 10 of 109
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural BVAR with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484212
We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014482977
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635887
Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy shows that it is important to … minor role in the asset markets of the U.S. and Germany; (ii) they substantially increase the variability of housing and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826474
, fiscal data; and (vii) analyze empirical evidence from the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy. The results show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826480
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003443135
The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688538
regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973538
Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by … analysis extends from 1981-2008, the results for Germany mostly capture the situation before the euro was created. - Global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973544