Showing 1 - 10 of 231
We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. While the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014103160
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491332
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491343
An anticipated benefit of the prospective European Banking Union is stronger supervision of European banks. Another benefit would be enhanced resolution of banks in distress. While national governments confine themselves to the domestic effects of a banking failure, a European Resolution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326204
In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451517
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837150
In the evolving analysis of global imbalances, the possibility that countries will resort to increased protectionism is often mentioned but rarely analyzed. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of a shift to protectionist policies through the lens of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012732497
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014211775
This paper proposes a functional specification approach for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that explores the properties of the solution method used to approximate policy functions. In particular, the solution-driven specification takes the properties of the solution method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326325
We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis … forecasting purposes. Given a dynamic factor model as the data generation process, we provide Monte Carlo evidence for the finite … unbalanced panel contain quarterly and monthly variables. The forecasting accuracy is measured against a set of benchmark models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326452