We introduce the concept of “negative bubbles” as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation...

We use the term structure of spreads between rates on interest rate swaps indexed to LIBOR and overnight indexed swaps to infer a term structure of interbank risk. Using a dynamic term structure model, we decompose the term structure of interbank risk into default and non-default components. We...

We examine the effects on a financial network of multilateral clearing via a central clearing counterparty (CCP) from an ex ante and ex post perspective. The CCP is capitalized with equity and a guarantee fund and it can charge a volume-based fee. We propose a CCP design which improves aggregate...

We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the Zipf factorʺ, which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical characteristics of a bubble described in the JLS model, the new...

The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to a large variety of financial bubbles in many different markets....

We study a financial network where forced liquidations of an illiquid asset have a negative impact on its price, thus reinforcing network contagion. We give conditions for uniqueness of the clearing asset price and liability payments. Our main result holds under mild and natural assumptions on...

We show that partial versus full multilateral netting of interbank liabilities increases bank shortfall, and reduces clearing asset price and aggregate bank surplus. We also show that partial multilateral netting can be worse than no netting at all

We examine the effects on a financial network of clearing all contracts though a central node (CN) thereby transforming the original network into a star-shaped one. The CN is capitalized with external equity and a guaranty fund. We introduce a structural systemic risk measure that captures the...