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Lang, Jan Hannes; Welz, Peter - 2018

This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928898

Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2010

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657123

Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending : evidence for the United States and the euro area

Dées, Stéphane; Soares Brinca, Pedro - 2011

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009160013

Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051

Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China

Lodge, David; Soudan, Michel - 2019

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975616

Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic

Morley, James C.; Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego; Sun, Yiqiao - 2022

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013350551

The effect of new housing supply in structural models : a forecasting performance evaluation

Girstmair, Stefan - 2024

Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), focusing on the U.S. While existing models have added a … includes both the financial sector and endogenous housing supply and show that forecasting accuracy significantly improves when … highlight the necessity of combining model extension and housing supply data for accurate forecasting during economic crises. I …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484423

Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks

Le Bihan, Hervé; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Pacce, Matías - 2023

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380740

A consistent model of "explosive" financial bubbles with mean-reversing residuals

Lin, Li; Ren, Ruoen; Sornette, Didier - 2009

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970340

Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005 - 2007 and 2008 - 2009 Chinese stock market bubbles

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier; … - 2009

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the logperiodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971111