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Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system

Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009

for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452

Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines

Härdle, Wolfgang (contributor); Moro, Rouslan (contributor) - 2007

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003633940

Ein Vergleich des binären Logit-Modells mit künstlichen neuronalen Netzen zur Insolvenzprognose anhand relativer Bilanzkennzahlen

Franken, Ronald (contributor) - 2007

Die Prognose der Insolvenzgefährdung von Unternehmen anhand statistischer Methodik war und ist eine bedeutende Aufgabe empirischer Forschung. Eine Möglichkeit der Beurteilung der finanziellen bzw. wirtschaftlichen Verfassung von Unternehmen stellt die sog. externe Bilanzanalyse anhand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003634014

Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion : what can we learn from survey expectations?

Schmeling, Maik (contributor); Schrimpf, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727414

Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs

Perederiy, Volodymyr (contributor) - 2007

Kennzahlenkategorien (Rentabilität, Effizienz, Unternehmensgröße) - zur Insolvenzprognose für deutsche GmbHs verwendet. Es wird …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635001

The bayesian additive classification tree applied to credit risk modelling

Zhang, Junni L. (contributor); Härdle, Wolfgang (contributor) - 2008

We propose a new nonlinear classification method based on a Bayesian "sum-of-trees" model, the Bayesian Additive Classification Tree (BACT), which extends the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) method into the classification context. Like BART, the BACT is a Bayesian nonparametric additive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635971

Academic ranking scales in economics : prediction and imputation

Zharova, Alona; Mihoci, Andrija; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2016

Publications are a vital element of any scientist’s career. It is not only the number of media outlets but aslo the quality of published research that enters decisions on jobs, salary, tenure, etc. Academic ranking scales in economics and other disciplines are, therefore, widely used in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011459002

Learning machines supporting bankruptcy prediction

Härdle, Wolfgang; Moro, Rouslan; Hoffmann, Linda - 2010

In many economic applications it is desirable to make future predictions about the financial status of a company. The focus of predictions is mainly if a company will default or not. A support vector machine (SVM) is one learning method which uses historical data to establish a classification...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973650

Forecasting euro-area variables with German pre-EMU data

Brüggemann, Ralf (contributor); … - 2006

-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the … nonlinear or time-varying coefficient models. It turns out that most variables which have a similar level for Germany and the … that for variables which have a similar level for Germany and the Euro-area it may be reasonable to consider the German pre …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003375993

What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk : information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors

Tu, Anthony H.; Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan - 2016

This paper first develops a new approach, which is based on the Nelson-Siegel term structure factor-augmented model, to compute the VaR of bond portfolios. We then applied the model to examine whether information contained on macroeconomic variables and financial shocks can help to explain the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437907

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