We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...

During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that "bear raids", driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with...

We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...

We address the problem of regulating the size of banks' macroprudential capital buffers by using market-based estimates of systemic risk and by developing a modeling mechanism through which capital buffers can be allocated efficiently across systemic banks. First, a Distance-to-Default type...

We propose a credit portfolio approach for evaluating systemic risk and attributing it across institutions. We construct a model that can be estimated from high-frequency CDS data. This captures risks from publicly traded banks, privately held institutions, and coöperative banks, extending...