We use MPC voting records to predict changes in the volume of asset purchases. We find, first, that minority voting favoring an increase in the volume of asset purchases raises the probability of an actual increase at the next meeting. Second, minority voting supporting a higher Bank Rate...

In this paper, we explore the interest rate setting behavior of newly appointed central bank governors. We use the Kuttner and Posen (2010) sample, which covers 15 OECD countries, and estimate an augmented Taylor (1993) rule for the period 1974–2008. We find, first, that newly appointed...

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006....

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials over the period January 1998 to September 2009. Econometrically, we use a probit model with regional and national macroeconomic variables to explain the subjectively coded content of these speeches. Our...

In this paper, we test whether public preferences for price stability (obtained from the Eurobarometer survey) are actually reflected in the interest rates set by eight central banks. We estimate augmented Taylor (1993) rules for the period 1976-1993 using the dynamic GMM estimator. We find,...

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency and informal central bank communication on the money market adjustment process between two interest rate decisions. The sample covers nine major central banks for the period from January 1999 to July 2007. We find, first, that...

We examine the impact of Bank of Canada communications and media reporting on them on Canadian (short- and medium-term) bond and stock market returns using a GARCH model. Communications are rather uniformly distributed over the sample period (1998-2006); however, media coverage is particularly...

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency on the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the...