-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries …

series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …