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Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans
Veldkamp, Laura; Orlik, Anna - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
parameters. When the forecasting model admits only normally-distributed outcomes, we find small, acyclical changes in uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950795
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Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
Lo, Andrew W.; merton, robert c.; Khandani, Amir E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market---rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities---led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005089229
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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting
Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017
series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094
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Income inequality, financial crises, and monetary policy
Cairó, Isabel; Sim, Jae W. - 2018
We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to agents featuring low marginal propensity to consume, and if excessive, can lead to an endogenous financial crisis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932429
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Labor Force Participation : Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Aaronson, Stephanie - 2014
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047177
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Unemployment risk
Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3
Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326
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How fast are semiconductor prices falling?
Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124
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Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow's seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950998
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On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment
Durdu, C. Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Terrones, Marco E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970-2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach--which tests for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951023
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How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel; Byrne, David M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast from the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252655