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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting
Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017
series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094
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The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity
Wix, Carlo - 2017
This paper studies the long-run effects of credit market disruptions on real firm outcomes and how these effects depend on nominal wage rigidities at the firm level. I trace out the long-run investment and growth trajectories of firms which are more adversely affected by a transitory shock to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755417
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Income inequality, financial crises, and monetary policy
Cairó, Isabel; Sim, Jae W. - 2018
We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to agents featuring low marginal propensity to consume, and if excessive, can lead to an endogenous financial crisis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932429
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Saving Europe? The unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal austerity in integrated economies
Mendoza, Enrique G.; Tesar, Linda L.; Zhang, Jing - 2014
Europe's debt crisis casts doubt on the effectiveness of fiscal austerity in highly-integrated economies. Closed-economy models overestimate its effectiveness, because they underestimate tax-base elasticities and ignore cross-country tax externalities. In contrast, we study tax responses to debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460731
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Labor Force Participation : Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Aaronson, Stephanie - 2014
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047177
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Unemployment risk
Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3
Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326
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How fast are semiconductor prices falling?
Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T.; Fallick, Bruce; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2022
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088089
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T. - 2015
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031124
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Endogenous retirement behavior of heterogeneous households under pension reforms
Börsch-Supan, Axel; Härtl, Klaus; Leite, Duarte; … - 2018
We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011892406