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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting

Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017

series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094

The long-run real effects of banking crises : firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity

Wix, Carlo - 2017

This paper studies the long-run effects of credit market disruptions on real firm outcomes and how these effects depend on nominal wage rigidities at the firm level. I trace out the long-run investment and growth trajectories of firms which are more adversely affected by a transitory shock to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755238

Saving Europe? : the unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal austerity in integrated economies

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Tesar, Linda L.; Zhang, Jing - 2014

Europe's debt crisis casts doubt on the effectiveness of fiscal austerity in highly-integrated economies. Closed-economy models overestimate its effectiveness, because they underestimate tax-base elasticities and ignore cross-country tax externalities. In contrast, we study tax responses to debt...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463574

Unemployment risk

Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326

How fast are semiconductor prices falling?

Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124

Secular stagnation? : growth, asset returns and welfare in the next decades : first results

Geppert, Christian; Ludwig, Alexander; Abiry, Raphael - 2016

Ongoing demographic change will lead to a relative scarcity of raw labor to the effect that output growth will be decreasing in the next decades, a secular stagnation. As physical capital will be relatively abundant, this decrease of output will be accompanied by reductions of asset returns. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011537898

Aging and pension reform : extending the retirement age and human capital formation

Vogel, Edgar; Ludwig, Alexander; Börsch-Supan, Axel - 2014 - This version: December 29, 2014

Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467965

General-Equilibrium Effects of Investment Tax Incentives

Edge, Rochelle M. - 2011

This paper develops a new-Keynesian model with nominal depreciation allowances to consider the effects of temporary tax-based investment incentives on capital spending and real activity. In particular, we investigate the effects of a temporary expensing allowance on investment in partial and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128646

Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

Mertens, Elmar - 2011

No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with non-parametric estimates of the spectral density, care...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128713

The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts

Sharpe, Steven A. - 2020

. Quantile regressions indicate that most of sentiment's forecasting power arises from signaling downside risks to the economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834185

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