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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting
Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017
series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094
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Income inequality, financial crises, and monetary policy
Cairó, Isabel; Sim, Jae W. - 2018
We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to agents featuring low marginal propensity to consume, and if excessive, can lead to an endogenous financial crisis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932429
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Labor Force Participation : Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Aaronson, Stephanie - 2014
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047177
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Unemployment risk
Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3
Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326
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How fast are semiconductor prices falling?
Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124
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Fostering economic growth in the Bronx
Dudley, William - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2015
Remarks at the 17th Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276455
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Credit growth and economic activity after the Great Recession
McAndrews, James Joseph - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2015
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Student Loans, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011261274
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T.; Fallick, Bruce; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2022
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088089
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T. - 2015
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031124
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The national and regional economy
Dudley, William - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2015
Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011241656